Somerset County’s Real Estate Market Conditions for June of 2026

Welcome to my Somerset County Market Report—a monthly update built on local insight and firsthand knowledge of our real estate landscape. Instead of broad state or national statistics, this report focuses exclusively on Hunterdon County and the neighboring communities that shape our market.

Each edition breaks down the economic trends and market forces impacting property values right here at home. It goes beyond the data to provide a meaningful, hyper-local perspective you won’t find in generic reports. By the end, you’ll not only know what’s happening in the market, but why, so you can make informed, confident real estate decisions throughout 2026.

I am also a certified Senior Real Estate Specialist (SRES), helping seniors (and their families) navigate the next chapter of their lives.

You can also find a version of the report covering Hunterdon County here.

345  Under Contract Listings      $790K Average List Price       24 Average Days on Market

“If the housing market feels confusing right now, you’re not alone.”

Inventory is up about 34% in Somerset County since this time last year.

Our state has an overall supply of 2.2 months, while Somerset County has 1.6 months and Hunterdon has 1.5 months (both encouraging signs). We are holding our own, and the recent NYC elections could help, but it is too early to tell. Iran has brought a new dynamic to this picture. You can read more about that here.

We saw 30-year interest rates briefly top 6.6% in late May, and 2 additional 0.25% rate cuts were expected in 2026, which now seem in doubt. The Iran conflict has driven up oil, which affects the 10-year bond, and the interest rate is based on that bond yield. Sales activity in May has remained strong. Days on Market for unsold inventory have risen.

The last national employment report, for April, showed that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 115000 in April, and the unemployment rate
dropped to 4.3 percent in the U.S. There are many rumors of workforce reductions due to AI automation (which could persist and stretch out over the coming months as employees receive severance packages). Also, the inflation rate remained at 4.3%. The NJ employment report is showing the state adding just a fraction of the jobs added in 2025, but improving. The NJ unemployment rate is at 4.8% and also improving.

From a broader perspective, the real estate market was beginning to show signs of normalization. This shift typically starts at the higher price points, gradually working its way down the pricing ladder and often moving geographically from west to east. As inventory increases, competition grows. The result is homes spending more time on the market, fewer bidding wars above asking price, and more offers that now include contingencies such as mortgage approval, home sale, and inspections.

The Iran conflict affects interest rates, driving them up by abot .5% on average. This has slowed activity, and the spring surge we normally see is now diminished, but it could return once conditions stabilize and interest rates drop back to around 6%. 

The number of newly listed properties has risen nicely in recent months, helping to stabilize overall inventory levels. However, demand continues to outpace supply—particularly in the lower price ranges—driving prices upward in our region. Meanwhile, higher price brackets are already experiencing price pressure as those segments trend toward a more balanced, or even buyer-leaning, market.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling, the insights are in this analysis. Overall, the market continues to favor sellers, as steady buyer activity and relatively quick turnover are supporting price stability in our area. That said, higher price points are beginning to shift toward a more buyer-friendly environment.

Over the past five years, New Jersey home values have risen substantially, including a 5% increase in 2025. Although a more moderate 2 to 3% appreciation was projected for 2026, properties priced at $700,000 and above are seeing rising inventory levels, shifting the supply-and-demand balance in that segment.

In contrast, homes priced below this level are still appreciating, though the pace of growth has slowed. Moving forward, price gains are expected to be more measured, yet remain positive overall. Historically, the fifty-year average annual appreciation rate has stayed under 5 percent.

Let’s take a closer look:

Rising Home Prices: Over the past five years, home values have climbed nearly 70%, significantly increasing the cost of homeownership. During that same period, wages have grown by only about 25%.

Interest Rate Spike: Mortgage rates have more than doubled over the past 18 months, further straining affordability—though we have recently begun to see signs of them rising a bit due to higher oil prices.

Higher Monthly Costs: The combination of elevated home prices and higher interest rates has driven up monthly mortgage payments, along with taxes and insurance, creating added challenges—especially for first-time buyers.

Inventory Constraints: As affordability pressures push many first-time buyers toward renting, current homeowners remain reluctant to sell. This dynamic continues to limit the number of homes available on the market.

In summary, rising home prices, elevated interest rates, and ongoing affordability challenges have made the path to homeownership more difficult for many. These pressures impact both buyers and sellers, while the constrained supply of homes is now subsiding, adding another layer of complexity to the market.🏡📈

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Market Statistics for Somerset County:

• Last month, the market saw a notable increase in new listings, with 313, up from 212 the previous month. This increased nicely from the 273 new listings in the same month in 2025.
• As of the beginning of this month, the available inventory has increased to 568 units, up from 491 at the end of last month. This is also higher than last year’s 423 units available in the same month.  Much of this new inventory is at our higher price points. YTD inventory is up 34%.
• The number of units that went “under contract” last month was 315, up from the previous month’s 298 and slightly up from 315 in the same month last year. YTD sales in NJ are down 1%.
• Over the past month, the average number of days on the market has decreased to 24, indicating an end to the seasonal slowdown, though it is still more than at this time last year.
• Currently, the month’s supply of inventory is at just over 1.6 months, indicating a strong seller’s market. This trend holds for properties priced under $1,000K

Given current market conditions, where supply and demand favor sellers, postponing your sale until later in 2026 may not be the best option. The market is likely nearing (or at) its peak, and it’s unlikely that prices will remain elevated for much longer. Therefore, it would be wise to capitalize on the current situation and list your property for sale now.

In summary, acting promptly in the current market could benefit sellers.

 

New Jersey Residential Real Estate Market Forecast

The fall of 2025 brought healthy momentum in both new listings and closed sales.

While overall inventory has grown, well-priced homes are still moving quickly—supporting strong sales activity and favorable pricing conditions for sellers. Looking ahead to 2026, the primary challenge remains finding the right move-up property and securing a mortgage at a comfortable rate. For buyers, the recent rise in interest rates—and speculation that they could rise further—has brought a sense of caution compared to just a few months ago. Trade-up buyers are feeling a similar shift in sentiment.

That said, today’s rates have sidelined many first-time buyers and caused hesitation among potential move-up sellers. Although recent rate fluctuations provide some encouragement, affordability remains a hurdle. Even so, this can still be an advantageous time to purchase, as more balanced market conditions and less intense competition may open the door to better terms. And if rates continue to ease, refinancing remains a viable strategy down the road.

Somerset County Real Estate Market Inventory Breakdown By Price For Last Month:

• 30% of sales in houses > $500,000
• 48% of sales in the $500,000 to the $1,00,000 range
• 22% percent of total sales (or 43 in total) in houses >$1,000,000

Somerset County Real Estate Market Inventory Breakdown By Municipality For Last Month

Two areas had no sales last month:

• Millstone
• Peapack/Gladstone

Four areas had 1 or 2 sales each last month:

• Far HIlls
• Raritan Boro
• Rocky Hill

Hotspots:

• Bernardsville/Bernards Twp. – 54 Sales
• Bridgewater – 51 Sales
• Franklin Twp. – 57 Sales
• Hillsborough – 50 Sales
• Montgomery Twp. 23 Sales
• Warren/Watchung 22 Sales

Approximately 74% of sales were concentrated in the hotspot areas in the past month. Here’s a breakdown of the average prices:

• New Listings Entering the Market: The average list price for these new listings was $883,084.
• Units Going Under Contract: The average list price for units that went under contract was  $790,263
• This represents a 11% difference between the average prices of new listings and units under contract.”

In summary, understanding these price dynamics can provide valuable insights for buyers and sellers in the real estate market.

Note:

If you want to secure a competitive price for your property based on its location and unique features, you can contact me at (908) 304-4660. By leveraging Coldwell Banker’s big data technology and Artificial Intelligence capabilities, you can gain a unique advantage in the market. I can demonstrate your area’s latest age and earnings breakdown, including where people are moving from and how to market directly to those specific areas and demographics. This approach will maximize the selling price while reducing the time on the market. Accurately priced and marketed homes tend to sell faster with the assistance of a seasoned real estate industry veteran and a local area expert.

“Why” is it happening…

New Jersey’s Economic Drivers:

New Jersey Home Sales and Inventory Levels:

Despite what national real estate headlines may suggest, the local markets in Hunterdon and Somerset Counties remain resilient. While broader media coverage may accurately reflect conditions in other parts of the country—particularly areas heavily driven by new development—this report centers exclusively on our two New Jersey counties, where the market is largely composed of resale homes. New construction here represents only a small portion of overall activity and is concentrated primarily in the upper price ranges.

• Sales across NJ declined 1% YTD, while unsold inventory increased by 41% since the first of the year.
• Locally, we saw a seasonal increase in sales in May in both Hunterdon and Somerset counties.
• There are early signs of a pullback in pricing at the higher tiers, but the lower tiers are still seeing modest price increases, albeit less aggressively than in the past.
• First-time buyers are cooling off considerably due to higher prices (price resistance), inventory shortages, and rising interest rates. Their purchasing power has decreased for these reasons, and many have been priced out of the market for now. Our average age of first-time buyers is now 40.
• Potential sellers find it challenging to locate suitable housing in the current market and are hesitant to list until they have found it. They are also dismayed by higher interest rates on their homes and, for the most part, are unwilling to move unless there is an urgent reason, such as a life event or a job transfer.
• About 40% of all homes are owned outright. Of homes with mortgages, nearly 50% have a mortgage rate of 4% or less, and 50% have a mortgage rate of 4% or more.
• The current month’s inventory supply in Hunterdon County remains just over 1.5 months. In Somerset County, it is approximately 1.6 months due to rapid sales of new listings (velocity) and an active market.
• Hunterdon County has a 20% higher inventory than a year ago, and Somerset County is up about 34%. The unsold inventory in New Jersey has steadily declined since peaking at over 20,000, but has now risen again to approximately 18,500.
• Inventory increased across all price points as of the end of May.
• The new housing development has not kept pace with population growth and is now focused primarily on the rental market.
• In summary, lower inflation will lead to lower rates and increased sales. But the conflict in Iran is affecting that for the time being (read more).

Interest Rates:

• Interest rates rose above 6.7% in late May and are now hovering at just above 6.6%.
• Two additional .25% rate cuts were anticipated in 2026, but that appears to be in jeopardy.
• Rates will go down as inflation subsides and oil prices return to normal levels. They are based on the 10-year bond yield, which will rise as inflation, unemployment, and oil prices rise.
• Many buyers are considering attractive ARM rates and creative other buy-down plans as alternatives.
• Based on current rates, first-time buyer mortgage applications have declined, but debt restructuring and paying down high-interest debt remain active.
• The Fed’s efforts to slow things down have resulted in the above.

National Job Front:

• Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 115,000 in May (more than 2X expectations), and unemployment stayed at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. On top of that, April was revised up by 64,000 and March by 20,000.
• The labor force participation rate dropped to 62.4 percent. This rate is calculated by dividing the total number of workers employed or actively seeking employment by the working-age population. It also fluctuates because people take a second job to make ends meet.
• Wages rose slightly by .3%.
• Most of the new jobs were in leisure and hospitality, while financial industry positions were down.
• It’s important to note that we require about 175K in natural job growth each month just to keep pace with population growth.
• Job growth nationally in 2025 was under 200K vs. 1.5 million in 2024.
• The lower end of the job market (which typically does not own houses) has benefited most from this trend, with higher starting pay rates amid a labor shortage. Positions starting at mid- to upper $20 per hour are already being offered.

New Jersey Job Front:

• The NJ unemployment rate has been improving and is at 4.8% for the past month, as reported in April. The overall market has faced a tighter hiring environment. 
• Job losses remain prevalent across industries such as construction, food services, and accommodations. Retail and wholesale trade are also experiencing a downturn in some states. Even health care, social assistance, and manufacturing are shedding workers.
• Note that the number of jobs in New Jersey lags the national figure by a month.

Rental Market Trends:

• Rental prices in central New Jersey have risen, with a year-over-year average of just under 1.2%. They are currently averaging just over $2,400 per unit. However, recent data shows a slight decrease in these prices.
• The vacancy rate in central New Jersey is currently 6.1%, indicating a limited rental supply and driving up rents. It should be noted that the return of over 2 million illegal immigrants has greatly affected these figures.
• The rental market typically includes low-income renters due to a shortage of available housing. However, recent constraints in the mortgage market have also contributed to growth in this sector.

New Jersey Foreclosures:

• NJ’s delinquency rate (more than 90 days past due) increased in the 4th quarter of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.
• NJ’s current delinquency rate has risen YOY by43% in April of 2026 vs. 2025.
• Nationally, $11 trillion in equity is needed to protect homeowners during a potential recession.
• The average FICO score of mortgage holders is over 750, higher than during the 2008 financial crisis.
• A slowdown and recession could still cause job losses and put mortgages at risk.
• A housing bust is not expected, as home equity is significant thanks to recent appreciation.

Real Estate Market Recap

Forecast:

• The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers rose .6% in April, giving an annual rate of 3.8%.
• Mortgage rates have risen as stated and are now back to the 6.6% range.
• The local inventory is concentrated primarily in the higher price ranges, and the housing affordability index has increased slightly (based on wages, rates, and home prices). As a result, mortgage payments now have an all-time high share of gross income (which slows spending in other sectors).
• Due to recent unrest in NYC, interest in living in more suburban counties, such as Hunterdon and Somerset, has been tepid. In fact, many companies are now requiring greater on-site presence, reversing the westward trend. This may reverse again in light of the results of the recent election.
• Retailing and the use of vacant industrial space will transform to meet new, altered demands and lifestyles.
• The local market will need to adapt to the new suburban renaissance, considering where people will work and what they need.
• The lingering question has been, “Can we keep this momentum up with low to moderately rising inventory?” as predictions for slower sales and price increases in 2026 have already been made.  In 2025, we saw more normalized increases (based on your price points) of 5%.
• Days on the market in our area have started to rise due to increased inventory and decreased sales. This may be what is needed to normalize price increases to pre-COVID levels.
• Younger buyers (millennials) are coming of age over the next 4 to 5 years, which will continue to put more demand on the first-time-buyer market, typically priced under $400K.
• Housing markets are adding much of the new inventory at higher price points, which is normalizing those results. Change usually happens from the top down.
• In a nutshell, 2025 looked a lot like 2024, with more inventory and slightly better rates. The 2026 numbers appear to be slightly lower than in 2025.
• More inventory means more options for buyers and a longer time on the market for sellers. Also, this is leading to fewer competitive offers.
• The Fed recently indicated it is close to ending its balance sheet runoff (quantitative tightening) and will become a net buyer of short-term Treasury bills starting in 2026 to offset the maturity of mortgage-backed securities. This move is aimed at addressing stress in overnight funding markets and can be seen as a form of easing, which could indirectly affect longer-term yields. There is also a move underway for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to buy up mortgage-backed securities. This, in turn, will hopefully lower interest rates.

This is substantial information, and the situation is evolving daily. Nevertheless, it appears to be moving in a more positive and normalized direction for now. If you require further clarification or have any concerns about how this could impact your circumstances, please don’t hesitate to contact me at (908) 304-4660. I’m always available to chat and help you gain a better understanding.

I am also a certified Senior Real Estate Specialist (SRES), helping seniors (and their families) navigate the next chapter of their lives.

Note: This information is presented as a public service by Joe Peters of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. Although reasonable care has been taken to provide this information, it is advisable to seek guidance from a professional sales agent and avoid making any decisions based solely on my views, trends, or statistics. I am not responsible for any consequences arising from the use of this data.

If you have any questions or would like to talk through your situation, please call 908-304-4660

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