Posted on: September 2, 2024, 12:19h.
Last updated on: September 2, 2024, 12:19h.
With most states having reported online sports betting (OSB) data for July, Flutter Entertainment ‘s (NYSE: FLUT) FanDuel unit regained the top spot in terms of market share from DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG).
That according to recent estimates by Stifel analyst Jeffrey Stantial. DraftKings and FanDuel have long held a duopoly in the US sports wagering scene in which they account for more than 70% market share. On a month-to-month basis, the two frequently rotate occupancy of the top spot with neither ever dropping below second place. That trend remained in place in the seventh month of the year.
FanDuel appears to have regained market share in July with OSB handle share up +0-3% month-over-month in most states – consistent with seasonality observed last year, though potentially also a function of higher promo reinvestment,” wrote Stantial.
The analyst added that as measured by handle, DraftKing was the biggest loser in July, shedding as much as 3% in some markets. BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook ceded modest handle share in July while market share in the iGaming arena was steady.
It’s That Time of Year Again for Promo Spending
College football commenced in earnest over the weekend and the 2024 NFL season starts on Thursday. So with football being the most wagered on sport in the US, it’s not surprising that there’s evidence of increased promotional spending by sportsbook operators.
“Based on the three ‘mature’ and competitive states that have reported July OSB promotional figures, reinvestment by operator ranged 1-6% of handle – up +10 basis points month-over-month and flat year-over-year on average. Interestingly, the data shows FanDuel reinvestment up ~80 basis points year-over-year (as a % of handle) on average, with DraftKings up a more modest ~40 basis points,” observed Stantial.
Added promotional expenditures could make sense this year because wagering on the NFL is expected to break records and because this is the first full football season for ESPN Bet and Fanatics. Some analysts believe those operators will leverage promo spending in an effort to lure customers from larger competitors.
In recent months, BetMGM has been one of the biggest promotional spenders, according to Stantial and the analyst forecasts large expenditures from ESPN Bet over the course of the 2024 football season.
Upside Drivers, Lingering Risks
Stantial left his state-level iGaming and sports wagering forecasts unchanged, but acknowledged the segments have both positive catalysts and risks.
“Healthy underlying user acquisition and monetization (increasingly weighted to the former), 2) increasing competition boasting wider user bases (ESPN Bet; Fanatics), 3) improvements to product from omnichannel operators, 4) incremental customer acquisition tools, and 5) continued product-driven improvements to hold-rate,” he wrote.
On the risk side, the analyst sees the possibility of more smaller players exiting the US market, lethargy on the legislative front, regulatory changes, the possibility some states will raise gaming taxes, and consumer fatigue when it comes to high hold wagers as issues to monitor in the months ahead.
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