Hunterdon County’s Real Estate Market Conditions for March of 2026

Welcome to my Hunterdon County Market Report—a monthly update built on local insight and firsthand knowledge of our real estate landscape. Instead of broad state or national statistics, this report focuses exclusively on Hunterdon County and the neighboring communities that shape our market.

Each edition breaks down the economic trends and market forces impacting property values right here at home. It goes beyond the data to provide a meaningful, hyper-local perspective you won’t find in generic reports. By the end, you’ll not only know what’s happening in the market, but why, so you can make informed, confident real estate decisions throughout 2026.

I am also a certified Senior Real Estate Specialist (SRES), helping seniors (and their families) navigate the next chapter of their lives.

You can also find a version of the report covering Somerset County here.

90  Under Contract Listings      $677K Average List Price       45 Average Days on Market

“Interest rates dip below 6% in late February?”

Inventory is down about 7% in Hunterdon County since this time last year. Our state has an overall supply of 2.4 months, while Somerset County has 1.6 months and Hunterdon has 1.8 months. We are holding our own. The recent NYC elections could help, but it is too early to tell.

We saw interest briefly dip below 6% in late February, and 2 additional .25 % rate cuts are expected in 2026.

The last employment report, for January, showed the creation of 131K new jobs and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%.  And there are many rumors of workforce reductions due to AI automation (which could persist and stretch out over the coming months as employees receive severance packages). Also, the inflation rate is holding at around 3% YOY.

From a broader perspective, the real estate market is beginning to show signs of normalization. This shift typically starts at the higher price points, gradually working its way down the pricing ladder and often moving geographically from west to east. As inventory increases, competition grows. The result is homes spending more time on the market, fewer bidding wars above asking price, and more offers that include contingencies such as mortgage approval, home sale, and inspections.

The number of newly listed properties has remained consistent in recent months, helping to stabilize overall inventory levels. However, demand continues to outpace supply—particularly in the lower price ranges—driving prices upward in our region. Meanwhile, higher price brackets are already experiencing price pressure as those segments trend toward a more balanced, or even buyer-leaning, market.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling, the insights are in this analysis. Overall, the market continues to favor sellers, as steady buyer activity and relatively quick turnover are supporting price stability in our area. That said, higher price points are beginning to shift toward a more buyer-friendly environment.

Over the past five years, New Jersey home values have risen substantially, including a 5% increase in 2025. Although a more moderate 4% appreciation was projected for 2026, properties priced at $800,000 and above are experiencing growing inventory levels, altering the balance of supply and demand within that segment.

In contrast, homes priced below this level are still appreciating, though the pace of growth has slowed. Moving forward, price gains are expected to be more measured, yet remain positive overall. Historically, the fifty-year average annual appreciation rate has stayed under 5 percent.

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Market Statistics for Hunterdon County:

• Last month, the market saw a decrease in new inventory, with new listings at 55 units, down from 66 the previous month. This was equal to 55 new listings in the same month in 2025.
• As of the beginning of this month, the available inventory has decreased to 166 units, down from 178 units last month. This is higher than the 130 units available in the same month of the previous year.  Much of this new inventory is at our higher price points.
• The number of units that went “under contract” last month was 90, up nicely from 69 the previous month and down from 99 in the same month last year.
• Over the past month, the average number of days on the market has dropped to 45,  showing an end to the seasonal slowdown.
• Currently, the month’s supply of inventory is just under 1.8, indicating we are still in a strong seller’s market. This trend holds for properties priced under $800K
• The current month’s supply still indicates a strong seller’s market, with prices rising.

Given current market conditions, where supply and demand favor sellers, postponing your sale until later in 2026 may not be the best option. The market is likely nearing (or at) its peak, and it’s unlikely that prices will remain elevated for much longer. Therefore, it would be wise to capitalize on the current situation and list your property for sale now.

In summary, acting promptly in the current market could benefit sellers.

New Jersey Residential Real Estate Market Forecast

The fall of 2025 brought healthy momentum in both new listings and closed sales.

While overall inventory has grown, well-priced homes are still moving quickly—supporting strong sales activity and favorable pricing conditions for sellers. Looking ahead to 2026, the primary challenge remains finding the right move-up property and securing a mortgage at a comfortable rate.

For buyers, the recent dip in interest rates—and speculation that they may decline further—has restored a sense of optimism compared to just a few months ago. Trade-up buyers are feeling a similar shift in sentiment.

That said, today’s rates have sidelined many first-time buyers and caused hesitation among potential move-up sellers. Although recent rate fluctuations provide some encouragement, affordability remains a hurdle. Even so, this can still be an advantageous time to purchase, as more balanced market conditions and less intense competition may open the door to better terms. And if rates continue to ease, refinancing remains a viable strategy down the road.

Hunterdon County Real Estate Market Inventory Breakdown By Price For Last Month:

• 36% of sales in houses > $500,000
• 41% of sales in the $500,000 to the $1,00,000 range
• 23% of total sales (or 26 in total) in houses >$800,000

Hunterdon County Real Estate Market Inventory Breakdown By Municipality For Last Month

Three areas had no sales last month:

Eleven areas had 1 or 2 sales each last month:

• Bethlehem Twp.
• Bloomsbury
• Califon
• Clinton
• Delaeare
• Flemington
• Frenchtown
• Kingwood
• Lamberville
• Lebanon Boro.
• W Amwell

Hotspots:

• Clinton/Clinton  Twp. – 14 Sales
• Raritan – 18 Sales
• Readington – 7 Sales

Approximately 43% of sales were concentrated in the hotspot areas in the past month. Here’s a breakdown of the average prices:

• New Listings Entering the Market: The average list price was $798,471.
• Units Going Under Contract: The average list price for units that went under contract was  $677,525.
• This represents an 15% difference between the average prices of new listings and units under contract.”

In summary, understanding these price dynamics can provide valuable insights for buyers and sellers in the real estate market.

Note:

If you want to obtain a competitive price for your property based on its location and uniqueness, you can contact me at (908) 304-4660. By leveraging Coldwell Banker’s big data technology and Artificial Intelligence capabilities, you can gain a unique advantage in the market. I can demonstrate your area’s latest age and earnings breakdown, including where people are moving from and how to market directly to those specific areas and demographics. This approach will maximize the selling price while reducing the time on the market. Accurately priced and marketed homes tend to sell faster with the assistance of a seasoned real estate industry veteran and a local area expert.

“Why” is it happening…

New Jersey’s Economic Drivers:

New Jersey Home Sales and Inventory Levels:

Despite what national headlines may suggest, the local markets in Hunterdon and Somerset Counties remain resilient. While broader media coverage may accurately reflect conditions in parts of the country—particularly areas heavily driven by new development—this report centers exclusively on our two New Jersey counties, where the market is largely composed of resale homes. New construction here represents only a small portion of overall activity and is concentrated primarily in the upper price ranges.

• Sales across NJ declined 8% in January, and February is predicted to be down about 4 to 5%, while unsold inventory increased slightly from last year and is at about a 2.4-month supply, at just over 13,000 units.
• Locally, we saw a seasonal increase in sales in February in both Hunterdon and Somerset counties.
• There are early signs of a pullback in pricing at the higher tiers, but the lower tiers are still seeing price increases, albeit less aggressively than in the past.
• First-time buyers are cooling off considerably due to higher prices (price resistance), inventory shortages, and rising interest rates. Their purchasing power has decreased for these reasons, and many have been priced out of the market for now. Our average age of first-time buyers is now 40.
• Potential sellers find it challenging to locate suitable housing in the current market and are hesitant to list until they do. They are also dismayed by higher interest rates on their homes and, for the most part, are unwilling to move unless there is an urgent reason, such as a life event or a job transfer.
• About 40% of all homes are owned outright. Of those with mortgages, nearly 50% of all homes have a mortgage of 4% or less, and 50% have a mortgage of 4% or more.
• The current month’s inventory supply in Hunterdon County remains just under 1.8 months. In Somerset County, it is approximately 1.6 months due to rapid sales of new listings (velocity) and an active market.
• Hunterdon County has considerably higher inventory than a year ago, and Somerset County is down very slightly. The unsold inventory in New Jersey has steadily declined since peaking at over 20,000, and it has now risen again to approximately 13,200.
• Inventory increased across price points under $500K as of the end of February, while price points above that showed decreases.
• The new housing development has not kept pace with population growth and is now focused primarily on the rental market.
• In summary, lower inflation will lead to lower rates and increased sales.

Interest Rates:

• Interest rates dipped slightly below 6% in late February and are now hovering at just above 6%.
• Two additional .25% rate cuts are anticipated in 2026.
• Rates will go down as inflation subsides. They are based on the 10-year bond yield, which will rise as inflation and unemployment rise.
• Many buyers are considering attractive ARM rates and creative other buy-down plans as alternatives.
• Based on current rates, first-time buyer mortgage applications have declined, but debt restructuring and paying down high-interest debt remain active.
• The Fed’s efforts to slow things down have resulted in the above.

National Job Front:

• The shutdown has affected our ability to obtain up-to-date numbers.
• Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 130,000 in January (the last month reported), and unemployment dropped to 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Employment continued growing in food, health care, social assistance, and construction. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month, in line with the forecast, although the annual increase of 3.8% was 0.2 percentage points higher than expected.
• Job growth nationally in 2025 was under 200K vs. 1.5 million in 2024.
• It’s important to note that we require about 175K in natural job growth each month just to keep pace with the growing population.
• The labor force participation rate rose to 62.5 percent. This rate is calculated by dividing the total number of workers employed or actively seeking employment by the working-age population. It also fluctuates because people take a second job to make ends meet.
• The lower end of the job market (which typically does not own houses) has benefited most from this trend, with higher starting pay rates amid a labor shortage. Positions starting at mid- to upper $20 per hour are already being offered.

New Jersey Job Front:

• The NJ unemployment rate is pat 5.4%. While some months showed gains, such as a 7,500 increase in total employment, the overall market has faced a tighter hiring environment. 
• Job losses remain prevalent across industries such as construction, food services, and accommodations. Retail and wholesale trade are also experiencing a downturn in some states. Even health care, social assistance, and manufacturing are shedding workers.
• Note that the number of jobs in New Jersey lags the national figure by a month.

Rental Market Trends:

• Rental prices in central New Jersey are beginning to decline, with a year-over-year average of just under .6%. They are currently averaging just over $2,400 per unit. However, recent data shows a slight decrease in these prices.
• The vacancy rate in central New Jersey is currently 6%, indicating a limited rental supply and driving up rents. It should be noted that the return of over 2 million illegal immigrants has greatly affected these figures.
• The rental market typically includes low-end buyers who rent due to a shortage of available housing. However, recent constraints in the mortgage market have also contributed to growth in this sector.

New Jersey Foreclosures:

• NJ’s delinquency rate (more than 90 days past due) increased in the 4th quarter of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.
• NJ’s current delinquency rate has risen by .24% in January of 2026 vs. 2025.
• Nationally, $11 trillion in equity is needed to protect homeowners during a potential recession.
• The average FICO score of mortgage holders is over 750, higher than during the 2008 financial crisis.
• A slowdown and recession could still cause job losses and put mortgages at risk.
• A housing bust is not expected, as home equity is significant thanks to recent appreciation.

Real Estate Market Recap

Forecast:

• The consumer price index, which rose 2.p% Y-O-Y in December (the last month reported), continues to drive up auto, finished-goods, and energy prices and is the enemy of long-term interest rates.
• Mortgage rates had pulled back a bit and are now back to the 6% range.
• The local inventory accumulates primarily in the more expensive price ranges, and the housing affordability index has increased slightly (based on wages, rates, and home prices). As a result, mortgage payments now have an all-time high share of gross income (which slows spending in other sectors).
• Due to COVID-19 and recent unrest in NYC, interest in living in more suburban counties, such as Hunterdon and Somerset, has declined. In fact, many companies are now requiring more on-site presence, reversing the move westward. This may reverse again with the results of the recent election.
• Retailing and the use of vacant industrial space will transform to meet new, altered demands and lifestyles.
• The local market will need to adapt to the new suburban renaissance, considering where people will work and what they need.
• The lingering question has been, “Can we keep this momentum up with low to moderately rising inventory?” as predictions for slower sales and price increases in 2026 have already been made.  In 2025, we saw more normalized increases (based on your price points) of 5% or more (which is what we also said last year).
• Days on the market in our area have started to drop from their off-season highs.
• However, change will result in a trend toward a more normalized environment if inventory continues to come onto the market and the first-time buyer fatigue we have seen persists.
• Younger buyers (millennials) are coming of age over the next 4 to 5 years, which will continue to put more demand on the first-time buyer market, typically under $400K.
• Housing markets are adding much of the new inventory at higher price points, which is normalizing those results. Change usually happens from the top down.
• In a nutshell, 2025 looked a lot like 2024, with more inventory and slightly better rates. And 2026 shows little promise of radical change.
• More inventory means more options for buyers and a longer time on the market for sellers. Also, this is leading to fewer competitive offers.
• The Fed recently indicated it is close to ending its balance sheet runoff (quantitative tightening) and will become a net buyer of short-term Treasury bills starting in 2026 to offset maturing mortgage-backed securities. This move is aimed at addressing stress in overnight funding markets and can be seen as a form of easing, which could indirectly affect longer-term yields. There is also a move underway for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to buy up mortgage-backed securities. This, in turn, will hopefully lower interest rates.

This is substantial information, and the situation is evolving daily. Nevertheless, it appears to be moving in a more positive and normalized direction for now. If you require further clarification or have any concerns about how this could impact your circumstances, please don’t hesitate to contact me at (908) 304-4660. I’m always available to chat and help you gain a better understanding.

I am also a certified Senior Real Estate Specialist (SRES), helping seniors (and their families) navigate the next chapter of their lives.

Note: This information is presented as a public service by Joe Peters of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. Although reasonable care has been taken to provide this information, it is advised that you seek guidance from a professional sales agent and avoid making any decisions solely based on my views, trends, and statistics. I am not responsible for any consequences arising from the use of this data.

If you have any questions or would like to talk out your situation, please call 908-304-4660

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