Posted on: November 16, 2024, 12:00h.
Last updated on: November 16, 2024, 12:50h.
Now that the Mike Tyson-Jake Paul fight is in the books – a big disappointment for those who thought a 58-year-old man could somehow rise against the odds and put up a decent resistance against someone 30 years younger, despite the fact that 58-year-old was the intimidating Tyson – the focus for bettors who are fight aficionados turns to an intriguing UFC 309 card tonight in New York.
Paul won handily by decision last night, eight rounds broadcast live on Netflix. Boxing’s reputation, despite the big betting interest on the fight, took another jab last night, with Paul now admitting he didn’t want to hurt the elder Tyson.
Plenty at Stake for Jones
The main event tonight is 37-year-old Jon Jones (27-1-0) defending his heavyweight title against 42-year-old Stipe Miocic. Jones’ last fight was March 2023 against Ciryl Gane, a win by Jones by submission.
The UFC heavyweight division has been adrift the past four years – only two fights for the heavyweight title have been fought during that time period. The heavyweight division, whether it’s boxing or MMA, is storied, romanticized. The UFC needs more name boxers in that division, holding more meaningful fights there.
Trader Reports Bets and Money on Stipe
That’s why the anticipation for tonight for fight fans is electric. Jones, despite his out-of-the-Octagon issues (domestic violence arrest, two suspensions for failed drug tests, assault charge after an incident with a drug testing agent at his home in 2024, DUI, hit and run, among other legal issues) that have impacted his career, is immensely talented, and one of the UFC’s biggest draws.
Traders are seeing the same buzz.
What’s Next for Jones?
“There’s plenty of action on tonight’s card,” said David Merry, a trader with BetVictor. “Jones versus Miocic has seen the most interest. Jones by Submission has been the most popular of the side markets with punters looking to get with him in some way at a backable price (+200). Of the other fights, Charles Oliveira versus Michael Chandler has seen plenty of interest in the outsider (Chandler +200) and he is currently our biggest loser in the book.”
A PointsBet Canada trader reports that 73% of bets and 76% of the money is on Stipe.
“We have liabilities on both guys to win by KO,” he said.
BetMGM reports that most bet fights are Jones (-650) versus Miocic (+450), Chandler (+210) versus Oliveira (-275), and Bo Nickal (-1400) versus Paul Craig (+800). Most bet props (tickets) are Miocic by KO/TKO or DQ (+700), Jones by KO/TKO or DQ (+100), and Jones by Submission (+200).
Lots of Betting Interest in Chandler versus Oliveira
It’s great to get Jones back in the cage for the first time in a long while, but the narrative outside is just as spicy – if Jones beats Miocic, where does he go from there?
Does he retire? A huge money fight with light heavyweight champ Alex Pereira (something Jones himself said he would like to see happen), or a fight with UFC interim heavyweight champ Tom Aspinall, something UFC CEO Dana White wants to see?
Jones versus Pereira next?
This week, Jones told the media he could see himself only taking on super fights, provided he wins tonight.
“After this fight, if we get a dominant performance, I’m prepared to vacate the heavyweight championship and fight for fun,” he said in an interview this week, posted on Sportsnet. “I’ve had a big chip on my shoulder my whole career, having to defend, defend, defend. I think about one of my teammates, Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone, he just fights, win, lose, or draw. He just fights.
And I would love to kind of experience that for the first time in my career, not having this belt to try to protect, but just fighting guys that I stylistically want to fight against. Just random fights. I am at an interesting weight, where I can fight light heavyweights or heavyweights. I am at 235 now but I could get down to 205. I feel like I have earned the right to cherry pick opponents. Let’s see if Dana allows me to do that or not.”
White on Jones’ Future
White told Pat McAfee this week that Jones is obligated to fight Aspinall if he beats Stipe.
“You can’t just want to do a fun fight and not fight the interim heavyweight champion, the guy who’s next, because if Jon Jones retired on Saturday Tom Aspinall would be the heavyweight champion,” White told McAfee. “Opportunities were given to Jon Jones when he was the youngest heavyweight champion of all time. Now as he sits where he sits it’s his obligation to give it to the younger guy, to give him that opportunity, and if he beats Tom Aspinall then yes I would do the Alex Pereira fight.”
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