Posted on: August 6, 2024, 01:08h.
Last updated on: August 6, 2024, 01:08h.
The 2024 odds surrounding the United States presidential election didn’t change in the immediate hours following Vice President Kamala Harris revealing her running mate for the Nov. 5 contest.
Harris, the Democratic nominee following President Joe Biden’s decision in July to not seek a second four-year term at the age of 81, confirmed today that Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz had accepted her nomination to be her running mate. Walz, a Democrat, served in Congress before becoming governor of Minnesota in January 2019.
Billed as a former high school social studies teacher, football coach, and union member, Walz is expected to churn out support across the Midwest for Harris, who would become the first woman to ever hold the office of commander-in-chief. Bettors, however, didn’t react much to the Walz news.
On Polymarket, a decentralized peer-to-peer betting exchange that offers trading on election outcomes, former President Donald Trump remained the 2024 front-runner.
The billionaire’s implied odds of winning remained stagnant at 53%. Harris remained the underdog, with her odds implying a winning likelihood of 46%. Polymarket reports that its 2024 presidential election market has $511.4 million bet on the outcome as of Aug. 6.
Betfair, a similar political wagering exchange, also maintained Trump as the favorite with his odds at 5/6 (-120). The line implies an outcome of about 55%. A winning $100 bet on that line would net $83.33. Harris is at 6/5 (+120). A winning $100 bet would net $120.
I’m all in,” Walz said on X after being picked. “Vice President Harris is showing us the politics of what’s possible. It reminds me a bit of the first day of school.”
Walz added that it’s “the honor of a lifetime” to run with Harris.
‘Weird’ VP Selections
Harris confirmed her Walz pick on X. She said the Minnesotan has “delivered for working families” and it’s “great to have him on the team.”
Walz was chosen over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. Critics of the Walz pick believe Harris was afraid to select Shapiro because he’s Jewish, a choice that could hamper the Democrats’ pro-Palestine vote.
Walz was presumably the safer bet for Harris, though Pennsylvania is expected to be a key battleground state in this presidential election.
Minnesota hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972 with Richard Nixon. Pennsylvanians, however, since 1972 have gone with five Republicans and eight Democrats for president, with state voters getting it right in 11 of those 13 presidential contests.
Walz, who was among the first to call Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, “weird,” is now facing backlash from party supporters for being Harris’ pick.
Rather than pick the very popular governor of a neck-and-neck must-win purple state, Harris chose a dime-a-dozen blue-state governor who gives feels to progressives,” opined liberal political commentator Damon Linker.
Meghan McCain, one of Trump’s most outspoken opponents, said “Trump and Republicans got lucky with the Walz pick.”
Books Maintain Trump as Favorite
In the United Kingdom where regulated sportsbooks are allowed to take bets on politics, high street betting shops kept Trump and Vance as the 2024 favorites.
Trump is at 4/5 (-125) at William Hill and 8/11 (-138) at Paddy Power. Harris is at even money (1/1, +100).
Biden said he was pleased to learn about Harris’ VP decision.
They will be the strongest defenders of our personal freedoms and our democracy,” Biden said via social media. “And they will ensure that America continues to lead the world and play its role as the indispensable nation.”
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